(the already positive) expectations. Top-line rose 43% YoY, while EBITDAR
increased 77% year-over-year (vs. +57% forecasted).
Net income of MXN 534 million, the major surprise on deferred tax benefits.
Strong 2Q11 results beat expectations. GAM reported the best 2Q in the last 15 years, benefitting from industry conditions and solid management. During the quarter, the company registered a top line increase of 43.1% year-on-year to MXN 8,639 million (practically in-line with our forecasts). Growth was mainly attributed to an 8% YoY yield increase and the positive performance from RPKs (traffic), which rose 32% YoY, above ASKs (capacity) growth of 25% (incorporation of 7 new aircraft YoY). Revenue per ASK (RASK) was up 14% YoY (MXN 1.242).
All on- board revenue items presented significant year-over-year increases: passenger revenue (+46%), air cargo (+92%, on the back of its restructuring) and excess baggage and other operating revenue (+28%).
CASK control propels EBITDAR. Operating profit in 2Q11 was boosted 454%
YoY, mainly as a result of: 1) the company's expense control initiatives (CASK-ex fuel down 4%), 2) efficient fuel hedging policy and 3) 13% lower personnel costs per ASK (on efficiency gains).
It is worth noting that despite the 48% YoY increase in jet fuel prices, fuel cost per ASK rose much less, 28% YoY as hedges brought a net
benefit of MXN 55 million during the quarter (gaining relevance). EBITDA before aircraft rentals (EBITDAR) posted a 76.6% YoY growth to MXN 1,759 mn, above Actinvers forecasts. Even that we were precise with our aircraft fuel costs estimate (-1.0% vs. reported MXN 2,703 mn), lower- than-anticipated personnel costs surprised us positively. The EBITDAR margin reached 20.4%, +387bp vs. 2Q10.
Net income was another positive surprise, reaching MXN 534 million (vs. MXN 251 million). This was principally explained by the aforementioned factors as well as by a higher recognition of deferred tax benefits (~MXN 192 mn vs. MXN 90 mnE). We find relevant noting that our estimates assume a MXN 450 mn deferred tax benefit in 2011. Up to 2Q11 a MXN 372 mn benefit has already been recognized, thus we would expect GAM's bottom line to present a lower effect from this item in 2H11.
2Q results evidence our positive outlook for 2011, BUY reiterated. We would
anticipate a positive reaction on AEROMEX share's price following the companys outstanding 2Q report. Our year-end 2011 target price of MXN 34.50 per share remains unchanged (+25.6% from current trading prices).
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